BEWARE of These Players in 2024 Fantasy Football – Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
you are being lied to about some of the biggest names in fantasy football and today I'm going to prove [Music] it every year around this time you'll see fantasy experts tell you about all of the guys that are starting on the pup list on the NFI list on the short-term IR list that are going to be fantasy breakouts later in the season so I went out and did the research for you guys I looked at the last three seasons paid attention to the top 300 scores from those seasons and looked specifically at the guys that missed four games to start the season and what I found honestly surprised me but it also reinforced my opinion that you should never be drafting players that are starting out the season on these lists so let's get into some of the biggest lies that fantasy analysts are telling you about the pup list about the NFI list and about shortterm IR so that you can know the truth when it comes to players on these lists first up we've got lie number one and that's that it's only four games we see this all the time a player goes on the pup and immediately the response is it's okay because it's only the first four games of the season but when I looked into the data of the top 300 fantasy scores over the last 3 years that missed the first four games of the season one statistic absolutely blew my mind when it came to these players and that's that of the 33 players that I found that finished the year as top 300 scores over the last three season 100% of them ended end up missing more than four games during that season so yeah they missed the first four games of the season but that was not the only games that they missed For That season every single player that started the year missing four games ended up missing even more games during that season every single one of them so theoretically is it possible that a player on the pup list or on the NFI list or on short-term IR could only miss four games and then play for your fantasy team the rest of the year sure but it just hasn't happened in the last three seasons lie number two he is going to be a top 10 player when he returns of the players that I mentioned on that list only Kyler Murray last season managed to score inside the top 10 at his position from the the time he returned until the end of the season Jonathan Taylor last year was the rb2 from his week five return on Cooper cup was the wide receiver 27 from week five on players who miss four games to start the year almost never actually return value at an elite level for the rest of the season so don't Bank on it when you're drafting these types of players line number three you're going to get these players at an injury discount now while it is true that most of the time players that are on these lists come at a lower cost than other players that's not always the case Jonathan Brooks was being drafted early in this season as a top 20 running back and he landed on this list we'll talk about him a bit later but the thing is when we look at the data from the last three seasons you actually don't see a huge discount in terms of uction after the fact so only Kyler Murray and tiend Greg doul if anybody remembers him from back in 2022 were able to finish inside the top 30 at their position for the entire season after missing the first four games of the season and we know that they actually end up missing more games than that because I just mentioned that statistic earlier but ask anybody who had Kyler Murray last year how good it felt to see him ride the IR slot for over half the season sure once he got back it wasn't too bad but the opportunity cost when a player is riding your bench for multiple weeks in Fantasy is just too much for a guy like me to stomach what do you do when a player returns and isn't really that good in the first few weeks after an injury many teams will risk multiple losses to start the season with guys sitting on their IR when they could have just taken players that would have helped them from the beginning that opportunity cost is the difference in a lot of cases between making the fantasy playoffs getting a first round by or being in the toilet bowl for your league it's just not worth it but I get it most of the people watching this video have already drafted or are about to draft and they might not see it before those drafts happen so the dam is done but what do we do with the guys that actually did start out on the pup let's take a look at the guys on the pup list that I think are going to be fantasy relevant this season and actually try to predict when I think they will come back for your fantasy teams if you did manage to draft them first up the guy I think most people are wondering about is Nick chub coming off the ACL tear with the MCL and meniscus tears as well as well as some cartilage damage last year and we two now he had two surgeries one in September one in November to repair his knee really put his knee back together so when I'm looking at the brown schedule they have a week 10 buy so I would say at the latest we will see Nick chub return around week 11 I think they are going to slow play him a bit earliest could still be week five they did restructure his contract but put incentives in if he is able to make the roster 4 12 weeks of the season so they're at least giving him a chance to get some roster bonuses if he manages to do so over a 12we season so they were planning on putting him on the pup way back when they restructured his contract but most likely looking at the schedule I'm predicting a week seven return against the Bengals there's a lot of things going for that week it's their first home game back always like to return guys off the pup in their first home game and it's over 11 months out from his first surgery so while I don't expect Nick chub to be 100% prior to that week that bi-week in week 10 I do think that Nick chub should probably return before the byee most likely around week five six7 somewhere around there the next guy that landed on the pup is TJ hackinson with the Vikings now he has an ACL and MCL tear from week 16 but he didn't actually have surgery until January 29th of this year so almost February of this year not surprising that TJ hackinson landed on the pup I actually said a few weeks ago that I expected him to be on the pup and I don't expect him to be back prior to their team the team Buy in week six so week seven looks like the earliest estimate for when hackinson could be back but he is moving well in practice there was some debate on if he could maybe potentially return without needing the pup but the team opted to be careful with him already gave him an extension so we're probably looking at that week seven return after the bye for TJ hackinson last up in terms of major fantasy players this year we're going to talk about Jonathan Brooks and his ACL tear from back in November now technically Brooks is on the NFI list because his injury happened in college even though it was a football injury if it happens in college they put him on the non-f football injury list it's kind of confusing but just know it's not technically the pup but Brooks did have a clean ACL tear in November so theoretically he should be on a faster track than the last two guys that I mentioned with their ACL terce but the problem is I can't really find much in terms of how his rehab is going he's not really posting anything about it the team's not really saying a whole lot about it he's not really working out in public yet so we don't know exactly how Jonathan Brooks looks from a running cutting perspective I would assume given the clean ACL tear that he would be on a faster recovery timeline than most guys but again we don't have a lot of data to suggest that because we just don't really know what's happening with his recovery at any capacity I told everybody back a month ago in my running back injury update video from the off season that I am not drafting Jonathan Brooks I don't want him on my fantasy team I think chuba hubard is going to take a lot of opportunities from him in this first year so I'm just not really in on Jonathan Brooks even though the price tag was pretty steep I thought a lot of people drafting Jonathan Brooks early as as an rb2 there was just no real evidence that they were ever going to let him get that type of opportunity maybe I'll be wrong but we know from what we've seen in the data that it's a pretty unlikely scenario that he'll end up paying off at an rb2 price tag so Jonathan Brooks starting on the pump could theoretically get back by week five but again don't really know much in terms of how his recovery is going all right to wrap it up I've just got a few players that I thought were worth mentioning here at the end of the video Keaton Mitchell Tyler higgy Kendrick B and obj all ending up on the pup list they're going to miss the first four weeks obj's got a mystery injury everybody else has ACL tears we don't really know what's going on with Odell Beckham Jr but you're probably not drafting him anyway uh Kendra Miller the running back for the Saints has a hamstring strain that basically kept him out of all of training camp the way his his coach was talking it sounded like he didn't really think he should make the team but they are placing him on early season IR to start the year so Kendra Miller probably not going to do a whole lot for your fantasy team Jamal Williams is the backup to Alvin Kamar if you're looking for handcuffs I'm not really a handcuff guy but maybe that's something that you like to do uh and then a little bit of a surprise here two guys ending up on season ending IR running back AJ Dylan with the Packers has a neck injury kind of a scary situation he's got a stinger uh the team doesn't think that he will be cleared for football so they've ruled him out for the rest of the year Maron Lloyd going to get a chance if he gets healthy to back up Josh Jacobs in Green Bay and then tight end gelani Woods has turf toe uh that injury is not expected to heal in time he's going to need surgery so he is done for the Colts so if you're looking for a Colts tight end I don't really know why but Mo alicat Cox uh probably the guy that you want if that's something you're into not really a guy I'm looking for from a fantasy perspective but just figured I'd let you guys know all right guys that's it for this week's video hopefully you guys enjoyed it make sure you like the video subscribe to the channel it's free helps us out a ton and let me know in the comments down below who's one player that you've been burned on from an injury perspective over the last few years that you're just not going to draft I have plenty but I want to know what you guys think down in the comments and if you get a chance and you want to be a part of the headliner Nation Discord hit that little join button down below you'll get access to our Discord where we are talking fantasy each and every day of the NFL season it's the best community that you can be a part of we don't let any jerks in there so if you want to be a part of that Community hit that join button become a member and get exclusive perks for the members we got a lot of great things coming for our members this season including maybe a little certain doctor dropping in each and every Sunday to talk about all the injuries that have happened on Sunday nights I'm just saying throwing it out there that sounds like something you'd be interested in make sure you hit the join button but that's all I got for you guys this week hopefully you enjoy it and we will see you for the start of the NFL season next week analytics off the chain other channels not the same Jake and K you know the name headline Nation we running the game"}]
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