AVOID these players in Fantasy Football 2023!
do not draft these players in fantasy football this year because the price is too much for what you're going to get do us a massive favor go ahead and smash that like button subscribe if you like fantasy football and I want you to comment down below before you watch the rest of this video who is a player you are avoiding based off price based off ADP uh Hey if you want my rankings badaki's rankings all of your favorite content creators go ahead and use our code land l-a-n-d at flockfantasy.com Lan sign up with that code you'll get 30 off come on baby so much more open site available to you Okay so we've got four players we're bringing to you today I'll go ahead and start first the first player I think you should avoid in fantasy in 2023 based off of current price is DeAndre Swift swift okay DeAndre Swift on Underdog is currently the running back 22 and ADP my rankings I haven't ranked as the RB 26. by the way shout out to everyone over on underdog if you haven't signed up to Underdog yet you can get your deposit matched uh if you deposit up to I think is it ten dollars match up to 100 up to 100 yeah exactly exactly so if you use our code land at underdogfantasy.com and when you sign up you'll get let's say you put 50 in you'll get 50 right uh but on ADP right now on Underdog keys rb22 I have them four spots lower than that I'm a little bit concerned let's let's just review DeAndre Swift's career as a whole because coming out of Georgia I mean he was an incredible Prospect it was wheels up land in a spot that we liked and had a great great profile but Swift has not been a reliable starter at any point of his NFL career and I would personally just be a little bit hesitant to just see that instantly changing because he's on a new team in 2023 in fact he's only started uh 16 of 49 games since entering the NFL meaning he has started just 32.6 percent of Detroit's games since 2020. and think about it has DeAndre Swift even when he's been healthy ever been someone who has handled the bulk of the carries well he has two games over 15 rushing attempts in his entire career that's just five percent of his games oddly enough myself and Mason from flock fantasy were kind of on the same page here you can go check out his article on on our website if you like again use our code land to get access but he notes in an article that DeAndre Swift had 20 has had 23 games with fewer than 10 carries and just two games with more than 15. if you look at DeAndre Swift since 2020 he's averaging 9.1 attempts per game and just 42 rushing yards and why is that important because well let's look at how the Eagles have utilized running backs last year in this Nick siriani offense well last year no one in the NFL ran the ball more times per game than the Eagles great that's great that's what you're thinking right here's the kicker no team threw the ball to running backs less than the Philadelphia Eagles and that's important because we need to look historically where DeAndre Swiss fantasy points have come from if you look at Swift's fantasy output on the ground through the air outside of his rookie season every other year he is over 55 percent of his production is coming through the air so while he's joining a team where running backs are important because they run the ball so much it he's also joining a team that rarely Rewards running backs and targets I mean there's not a running back on this team that had more than 30 targets last year that's just the reality of Philadelphia with uh we where you've got Jalen hurts rushing the ball so much and think about it what did it really cost this team to add DeAndre Swift I keep hearing people say well look what happened to CMC when he went to San Francisco San Francisco I mean those are two completely different situations right CMC the 49ers sent a second third fourth and fifth round pick he's a no-brainer starter years and years of reliable production Swift Philly sent a fourth and then they swap sevenths I think there's a much higher chance that this is a split backfield than people want to realize this is not a CMC to San Francisco type of situation that's because there's a lot of good competition in Philadelphia whether you believe it or not Rashad penny is in Philadelphia and he was in efficiency superstar in 2022 again hate on him if you want but in 2022 Rashad Penny was first in yards per attempt first in jar in yards after contact per attempt he had the best Breakaway percentage in the NFL by the way Breakaway percentages runs of 15 or more yards over 50 percent of his runs were for more than 15 yards he had the fifth best elusive rating and if you look at uh rushing guards over expected he was second in the NFL that's a minimum of 50 attempts all those numbers I just gave you but yards after contact per attempt only Penny and Bruce Hall were over four in that in that category if you look at yards per attempt no other running back was over 6 yards per attempt in the NFL Rashad penny is not a bum he just can't stay healthy he and Swift have that in common so if one of them can stay healthy I mean let's see what will happen but based off of ADP Swift's ADP is currently 71.3 pennies is 114.8 if you want a running back in Philly I I think penny is the better buy based off of cost in my opinion but not only do you have Penny there you have Kenneth gainwell who he led the team in receptions from the running back position in 2022 he beat out miles Sanders in that category right and keep in mind this is a receiving back that is the reason they drafted Kenneth gangwell was for his receiving skill set and in Memphis is last year at Memphis 51 receptions you've got Boston Scott there who just signed a similar deal to what Don DeAndre Swit is currently on as far as like last year of their deal both are making about 2 million both have one year left and then you got Trey sermon just kind of waiting uh you know in the background in the shadows you know he's our Batman maybe it's funny because Nick siriani keeps talking about him in interviews he's like man I wish we could get Trey sermon the ball more oh yeah like yeah Nick I I wonder who has the control there man if only if only someone could could make that happen but look here's what I'm saying historically Swift's rushing uh fantasy production has come through the air this team does not reward or it hasn't historically rewarded that kind of production and Swift has not been a reliable uh rusher on the ground he's just not and you're joining a team that has maybe one of the best receiving cores in the NFL AJ Brown Devonta Smith Dallas Goddard you're not just gonna get Targets in that backfield because you're DeAndre Swift and last thing Philadelphia has a much more difficult strength of schedule this year okay they had the easiest strength of schedule in 2022 now they have literally the most difficult uh by far the most difficult schedule so look at his current ADP I'm going to be passing him it's early in the off season you know we're still in May at this point so things could change but if his ADP is going to stay here or even go up then I'm gonna pass on DeAndre Swift and have a lot more penny in my drafts yeah I mean shoot we got even we might even gotta go deeper and get kind of game well I mean honestly it is it is Wilds when you really look at that Eagle's backfield um yeah very interesting all right my first play I'm going to be avoiding in fantasy football in 2023 and that's d-bo Samuel and once again it's all based off value and where you could be getting him and how much it actually costs especially in under Underdog's draft so I currently in Underdog ADP wide receiver 16 in my rankings wide receiver 19. and had a decent year this past year he did miss four games so he finished wide receiver 38 but um you know he didn't he wasn't as productive in the touchdowns you know with only five touchdowns in total whether it's on the ground or in the air so that's definitely a big conversation but the reason why one of the big reasons why I'm going to be avoiding him and I've been saying risk aversion all the whole time he and that is because of the quarterback play so let's firstly talk about that right Trey Lance Brock Purdy who is it going to be there's a lot of question marks here coming in and you know ideally you I would want Brock Purdy but you know with this injury the timeline we won't know what this is really going to look like right now leading up to the season especially in Underdog so you definitely want to play the risk aversion method when you really think about it because the ADP is is pretty is pretty significant right exactly is market value kind of like what Zach was alluding to when he was talking about you know DeAndre Swift over shot Penny which one is cheap and where you can kind of get him and that's the same thing you really think of of Debo and Brandon iuk right I mean we've seen both of these guys be really successful on the field especially in a fantasy perspective so Debo's current ADP is wide receiver or going in the 33.7 currently right now so that's probably what that's probably the early third round maybe mid third round wide receiver 19 area right and he's going around players in my in my opinion have better quarterback play that feel really comfortable I would rather have over um Deebo Samuel and I see T Higgins right Devonte Adams T Higgins DK Metcalf Calvin Ridley I would rather take a chance on Amari Cooper a Christian Watson all those players I'm looking at and saying you know what why would I be taking Debo here with the question marks on quarterback not only question marks on quarterback but now that they drafted CMC one of the biggest things people were raving about the year before was that Depot Samuel is going to be taking opportunities away from the running back position right I mean at the time we were talking about Elijah Mitchell we were talking about all these players here that maybe couldn't stay healthy don't worry they got Debo who can run the ball and catch the ball and now that's not really the case with CMC that you're really thinking that CMC is going to be leading this backfield there with Eliza Mitchell and hopefully both of these guys can weigh themselves out and stay healthy on the field where we're going to see less carries from Debo Samuel but when you really look at the value the market value and see okay let's really compare Brandon iuk and Debo and see you know where you can get them and where they actually finished this past year right so this past year Depot Samuel obviously was going really early I would say what early probably same same round right early second maybe um late uh excuse me late second early third still around the same ADP brand I think was going in those later rounds in your Underdog drafts but when you look at the stats here mind you he did miss four or three games four or three games like I said earlier when you look at the receptions uh ayuk was significantly most most successful talk is significantly more successful yards more successful obviously he played more games which is also a big thing you know you want your players to stay on the field especially on the dope points per game 13 points per game versus 13.4 so a little bit better and then once again the wide receiver finishes wide receiver 38 to wide receiver 15 which is significant okay but what if Debo played the full season if you really extrapolate that it's not that big of a difference when you really look at it and what I really want to to to point are you know that extrapolation to is the points per game and the Finish essentially the points per game technically worsens but we're just gonna round it up as 12.9 so if anything he gets 13 straight points per game even right but the wide receiver finish is wide receiver 19 which is still lower than Brandon iuku finished wide receiver 15 this past year so if I can get Brandon iuk at ADP 62 which is mid fifth round right now I'm willing to do that I'm willing to wait and these are some wide receivers going around Brandon iuk that once again I would personally I would say Okay Brandon you feels a little bit more comfortable here uh Chris Godwin Mike Evans I think Tyler Lockett is in question obviously with Jackson Smith and Jacob are there but you know he always somehow Returns value Jackson Smith and jigba is also in that area who is a rookie right so you really think of Michael Pittman as well uh Terry McLaren so you really think of all these plays and you see okay if Brandon iukes did should I be if I if I see Michael Pittman I feel a lot more comfortable brand now you got at a lower ADP right if I see Chris Godwin I'd rather have brand now you got a lower ADP especially with the quarterback player over there in Tampa so once again you're looking at market value seeing where Debo is versus Brandon you can I'd rather wait the two three rounds to still get the wide receivers I believe that can still finish higher no matter who the quarterback is in the 49ers with Debo uh with Brandon iuk so at the moment I'm going to be avoiding Devo Samuel yeah I can definitely respect it uh are you had a low-key season a lot of people don't realize how good he was all right the second player I'm avoiding and you know if you do have a membership over on flock fantasy with us you know use our code Lan Link in the description but if you play basketball great we have basketball rankings if you play redraft great we're gonna re-draft rankings like whatever you play the rankings format will be there not only from us but from all the experts on the site all the community so the second player that I'm avoiding in fantasy as of right now based off price is Mike Williams I'm kind of shocked at how high is ADP is Underdog ADP currently has him as a wide receiver 20. he's my wide receiver 29. I could see that getting even lower as crazy as that sounds but currently my wide receiver 29. let me ask you he's priced as a wide receiver too comfortably priced as a wide receiver too right that would be a top 24 ranking wide receiver 20 right now so he's priced as a wide receiver too can you really rely on him as your wide receiver too in fantasy football okay as far as health goes that's a different conversation Mike Williams like he is that type of possession one-on-one Ball winner type of wide receiver that instantly just leaves him success um susceptible excuse me to injury draft shark has given him a 93 chance of injury in 2023 currently projecting him to miss two to three games regardless put the injury side out of it even when he's healthy can you rely on him as a wide receiver too let me know because historically I'm not so sure if you look at his points per game historically only one season uh sorry the last two seasons he's returned top 24 points per game and if you look at his entire career minus that rookie season where he had an injury he's averaging currently wide receiver 35 or so okay in points per game but let's look more recently at last year okay how about we look at last year's numbers Mike Williams on a per game all right per game basis these are per game averages he was 34th in targets he was 30th in receptions at 4.8 he was 18th in receiving guards that's where he makes a lot of his money and he averaged 0.3 touchdowns a game already was losing a little bit of the touchdown chair there in 2022 and is in points per game he was 22nd he finishes the wide receiver 32 right miss about 13 games so let's say he was right around the wide receiver 22 because of points per game last year okay that was last year things have changed guys and we have them ranked ahead of that right now on Underdog as the wide receiver 20. in 2022 38 plus percent of Mike Williams games were under 10 PPR points it gets worse because there is more competition in this wide receiver room than they've had in like five six seven years like honestly since Mike Williams really since Mike Williams has joined this team there's more receiving competition now than there ever has been the Chargers just spent a first round pick on Quentin Johnson the wide receiver out of TCU if you haven't been with us over on the dynasty Channel yeah butaki does love come on baby Johnston uh he's he's one of the top wide receivers in this year's draft big huge body funnily enough when we were doing player evaluations my floor comp for Quentin Johnson was Mike Williams that's the player I thought yeah at worst he's probably going to be a Mike Williams type player so I personally don't think it's absolutely crazy to suggest that they could get similar volume similar roles similar opportunities towards the end of the year uh and when you're drafting best ball you're not trading right so like you really you want to investball you want the strongest team in the playoffs that's where you're going to win most of your money and in your re-draft leagues you want the strongest team in the playoff too right because you want to win the championship so by that point of the season I find it difficult to not see Quentin Johnston eat into that opportunity right and here's the deal right the most important part is you are cutting a piece of the pie that Mike had into a even smaller piece in 2023 that is really the biggest issue here with Mike Williams the numbers that we just discussed before I spent a couple minutes talking to you about the numbers that you put up last year now you have to realize that that was already the second largest passing volume offense in the NFL last year so it's not as if oh they're gonna pass the ball more they already were passing the ball more than anyone except for the Vikings okay now you add competition to those opportunities Mike Williams contributed 15.7 percent of this team's total receiving offense in 2022 now you add Quentin Johnston not only do you have to compete with Eckler Keenan now and Josh Palmer but now you also also have to compete with a first round wide receiver who let's be honest probably has more upside at this point you know building around Justin Herbert than what Mike Williams currently offers uh so look I'm not saying Mike Williams is a bad player he's a fantastic player but at his current price I don't think it's worth what people are paying so I think there's a lot of better options based off ADP give me Amari Cooper give me Jerry Judy Give me DJ more you might say what do you mean DJ more you just talked about pieces of a pie that's not a very large volume offense uh through the air hey I hear you but DJ Moore has half that pie probably right right do you want do you want 15 to 20 of the pie or 40 to 45 with DJ more right uh that might be a little ambitious but you probably get what I'm saying Keenan Allen I think is a better pick based off of current um current ADP Terry McLaurin Chris guy when Brandon ayuk and honestly I think I'd even rather have Jordan Addison I've talked about Jordan Addison a lot oh boy when I think about wide receivers who could potentially rookie wide receivers who could potentially you know lead their class their rookies in receiving year one Addison stands out to me you say why is that well remember how I said only one team threw the ball more than the Chargers last year that was the Vikings they got rid of Adam thielen they added Jordan Addison Addison is going to get work from day one so look just based off price right now Mike Williams is too expensive in my opinion yeah that could change but right now that's you know the whole point of the video yeah the whole point of the video it makes sense you know especially with Winston coming in so that's going to be very interesting all right my last must avoid player and I think this one's pretty obvious but I really want to hit it here because I it's crazy now me looking at it is pretty up there right um in a in a dynasty perspective is different I would say but interesting I have some question marks here because we've disagreed a lot on this day we did and I and I still believe in a dice perspective long term is different but in redraft I'm a little bit more concerned I don't think I want to be taking this player at all and that's Kenneth Walker all right ADP rb15 he's still my RB you know 15. I moved him down a little bit in the redrop perspective Bob this is It's the obvious right the obvious is the Seahawks drafted Zach Sharma name very similar draft Capital Walker was drafted in the second round with pick 41. Shelby was picked in the second round will pick 52. right and Zach is right we did have a massive argument massive argument massive disagreement you know and this is this is what we like about the channel right so one of my biggest things is when is that turn going to happen and that's kind of where I've been leaning on now a little bit and what what do you mean by the turn one is the turn of when you know Zach Chardonnay is going to start taking a lot more snaps away from Kenneth Walker when he's going to start taking the goal line opportunities away from Ken Walker when is he when is he going to be more when is he gonna have just eat into the pie right eat into that pie and when is that really going to happen and historically that has happened always whether you're a wide receiver or running back or I will say more on the running back but sometimes wide receivers depending on the team Outlook is the bye week and I think we've seen that with so many people and so many teams and so many running backs in the past and the biggest one you can really think of right now uh well I thought of and I I can once again I can name so many teams but I think one that's really big or two that's really big in my mind is how we've seen the the change in transition from Zeke and Tony Pollard over the past couple years but especially the one last year with Lenny and Rashad white right and you really think about that Lenny was getting drafted what third fourth round in underdogs Rashad getting drafted sixth seventh even later potentially in those Underdog drafts and when you really break it down you look at Lenny and Rashad white they had a bye week at week 11 right so we look for weeks one to ten and weeks one to ten Lenny was rb9 versus Rashad white rb46 and then you come after the bye week right weeks 11 to 18. Lenny was RB 30 Rashard white rb25. so that's the turn no matter what that looks like and whether that is in a redrop perspective or a fantasy perspective you have to be ready for the second half of the Season especially in Underdog where you really want to play for those playoff weeks right if you do make it to those players where these guys okay you have to really project the the longevity and the Outlook the the whole season long and I see right now in the first couple weeks Kenneth Walker is probably going to be leading this backfield without a doubt and I believe he can be getting 80 of the workload until Shelby gets his feet wet and so they really want to show him the ropes right and the Seahawks bye week right now is week five that is probably one of the earliest bye weeks you can have yeah and if Kenneth Walker is not going for a hundred you know getting 15 attempts 100 yards on the ground with a touchdown or you know 80 you know 75 to 80 100 to 100 yards on the ground with a touchdown they're already having a conversation to say okay how much how much work can we give Kenneth uh Zach Chardonnay at week week six right week six or week seven of the Season already that early and I think in a redraft and an underdog perspective we need to be understanding that right now Kenneth Walker's rb15 with Zach Chardonnay he's all be 32 right now and the ADP significantly different 46.8 for Kenneth Walker 104.6 for Zach Chardonnay and when you're looking at that and once again in a redraw perspective it's not what I want especially when you're looking for the I'm playing on the dog right Kenneth Walker's going around these players Naji Harris Jamia Gibbs Aaron Jones miles Sanders JK Dobbins Joe Mixon none of these guys all getting opportunities taken away from them I would say outside of Jamir Gibbs maybe Travis etn depending on how far you want to go up right Aaron Jones has you know AJ Dylan but I would rather have each and every one of those players right now over Kenneth Walker because of the piece of the pie we are projecting and now I am projecting Zach sharpenet to eat into now when you look into where Zach Chardonnay is getting drafted once again rb32 ADP 102.8 I think I must it must have changed already into that since I did um since I did this uh Alvin Kamara is going around right before Zach Chardonnay I would rather take Zack Chardonnay AJ Dylan before after Zach sharpening I'd rather take Zack sharp and a Brian Robinson I'd rather take Zach's shopping you can have a conversation definition you can have a conversation that this is where you kind of get into the Rashad Panic territory right so you kind of think it's kind of very similar to DeAndre Swift and Rashad Penny going significantly high in in these Underdog drafts when we don't even know what this full Outlook is going to be in the second half of the Season I'm confident to take Kenneth Walker once again if I have like a five week Underdog draft sure I'll take the chance right but this is full 17 weeks and I think zaksh Albany is going to be taking that workload in the second half of the Season especially after the bye week whether he's taking the workload or just eating into the workload not saying that he's going to take 100 whether it's 50 50 60 40 I think that's pretty significant already for Kenneth Walker longevity though in the dynasty perspective we can have a different conversation um but in in Underdog right now I definitely want to be avoiding Kenneth Walker and based off the value just based off value right Talent is still there I still love Kenneth Walker I think they're very similar in in talents as well I would give Kenneth walk at the edge um but for me I think it's all about Zach charbonne with his value right now I mean you don't gotta convince me I've been trying to be the one to convince everyone I feel like I've got a lot of backlash up for it so let's see how this position I've been the one being like I hey guys maybe we should pump the brakes a little on Ken but I I wholeheartedly agree I wholeheartedly agree I think uh you know charbonnet I I it's it's funny I think from a dynasty perspective uh it was it's kind of ironic to me how quickly The Narrative change for people like the narrative before the draft was Chardonnay could be a three down Workhorse running back the narrative after the draft is he's he'll be he's a good backup he's a good backup he's a good backup he'll have he'll have a you know he'll take some touches you know so I mean look I'm I definitely agree that charbonnet I'm not saying he's the better back in in Seattle I'm saying they're both very good they both will have opportunities and One's Gonna vulture a touchdown from another that's gonna piss us off um and you know something that I I didn't hear you say which which I have been talking about a lot as well just to add on to it is if you look at these two running backs and they're receiving profiles one stands above the other and that is Zach charbone so in PPR formats that should also be slightly concerning uh but definitely agree with the take and I'm curious what you guys think let us know in the comments below who are you avoiding maybe you disagree maybe you're absolutely Furious and you're typing up a message right now there's no way you're telling me to avoid look what this guy did last year because last year's how this year is going to go right yeah exactly that's what it normally happens yeah every year guys thanks for joining us do us some ass favor drop a like on this video subscribe if you like fantasy football and we'll see you in the next video all up now that those idiots are done talking who needs some rankings hell yeah I need some rankings then use promo code land l-a-n-d for 30 off any membership at flockfantasy.com oh it's so easy even your grandma could scan that QR code right there"}]
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