5 Bounce Back Wide Receivers (Draft Or Avoid?) 2022 Fantasy Football
okay before we get into anything i gotta admit something yes i ranked alan robinson over cooper cup last season there i said it but we are going to be diving in to some wide receivers that failed miserably last year and we are going to see if they can bounce back if we think that they have better situations this upcoming season and if we should be targeting them in fantasy football drafts and i know people are going to say um mason are you an idiot it's june why are we talking fantastic have you not been looking at our channel we are getting in real money fantasy football drafts every single day on underdog fantasy you can do the same with the link in the description of the video or in the comment section but when you go over to underdog fantasy you'll be able to get into drafts with us on the live stream get into drafts in a public lobby get into drafts against her whatever you want to do if you enjoy fantasy football you'll have a ton of fun doing so and also if you're a first time depositor and you use promo code flock they will match your first deposit dollar for dollar up to 100 you will get our 2022 rankings you'll get my dynasty rankings you'll get my dynasty rookie rankings so you'll get our dynasty recruit draft guy literally with the 10 deposit all that stuff we sell for like 50 bucks so you can get it for 10 with that deposit but that should be it let's go through and let's dive into some of these wide receivers and instead of starting off with the poster boy for this video in allen robinson we'll keep them until the end let's go brandon nyuk first aik's not going to be a wide receiver that too many people think about whenever they're hearing oh a bounce-back candidate but i think it's just people have forgotten how good brandon naik was his rookie season his rookie season in 2020 keep in mind this is an offense that had a debo samuel he was drafted in 2019 that had george kettle he was drafted in 2017 yet brandon iuke as a rookie came out and was the wide receiver 17 on a per game basis just to give you some context of how impressive he was his rookie year he went out there and he averaged eight targets a game he had almost 22 and a half percent of his team's target share and he was scoring touchdowns he had almost half a touchdown a game in this 49ers offense because we know san francisco is going to be very efficient based on how their run game is set up and there are a couple different things working in favor on why you should potentially draft brandon you despite the horrible second year where he was the wide receiver of 57 on a per game basis a we need to acknowledge the fact that debo samuel and george kittle are both pretty big injury risk now yes as of now both debo samuel and george kittle are healthy but if we look at their injury history oh my gosh it is a laundry list of oh foot sprains hamstring straight like any injury you can think of these guys have suffered they've missed a combined 25 games through their respective careers in san francisco and we've already seen hell if debo samuel if george kittle were to miss time brandon iu has upside to jump into possibly being a top 24 wide receiver yet again we have nine games with brandon eyuk and no george kittle in this offense and brandon iuke went from being a wide receiver that with george kittle averages a 5.8 targets a game so with no george kittle almost eight and a half the fantasy points per game gets an uptick up to 14 and we see a very similar thing happen when debose samuel misses time brandon iuke and debo samuel have played a combined 21 games together and in those 21 games brandon yuke averages about six targets a game but if debo samuel were to miss then all of a sudden brandon naik is jumping up to eight targets a game so just this one thing while yes it looks bad on the surface for iu kia's the wide receiver three on a run first offense where we don't know if his quarterback's going to be any good at getting him the ball but that's baked into his price drafters know that they know he's behind george kittle and debo samuel on the target totem pole this is why he's being drafted as the wide receiver 39 right now on underdog fantasy he's being drafted directly ahead of skye moore and hunter renfro you're getting a wide receiver that his rookie season was the wide receiver 17 you're getting that at wide receiver 39 with brandon ayuk not even stepping into the prime of his career yet we should assume he is still developing as a talent now if we go through and we look at that rookie season and really see how impressive it was overall if we combined two different factors we want to see our wide receivers averaging eight targets a game which brandon iuke did and we want to see them have a 22 percent market share in their respective offense thank rodoviz for providing us with everything here but you actually have a short list of wide receivers since 2010 that were able to do this their rookie seasons you have odd beckham jr mike evans amari cooper jalen waddle we talked about model in another video kelvin benjamin yes there there's a bust on this list there is a bust brandon nyuk sammy watkins mike williams and justin blackman of course that's not saying brandon iuke is destined to be a hall of famer by any means but it's showing that his rookie season truly was special now let's go through and talk about the negatives with brandon nyuk the 49ers overall are going to want to run the ball over and over and over again if we head over to rotovis and we look at what the 49ers have done in neutral situations so far over the past three years we see that this is a top five team with their run rate that's with jimmy garoppolo as well who we know jimmy garoppolo is not dynamic he's not going to be trey lance so it's very easy to see the 49ers this upcoming season especially with the good defense going out and leading the nfl in rushing attempts like i want to say that you probably have baltimore new england san francisco those are the three teams that are going to be running it over and over and over again and if we think about it okay well are we excited about the third option in new england no nobody's drafting kendrick porn are we excited about the third option in baltimore well yeah on underdog i'm drafting devin duvernay a lot in the 18th round he's going in the 18th so you are paying a premium on brandon naiuk as is as the third option in a run heavy offense and i love tray lance you all know i have been the biggest stray lance fanboy you can find i think that he is going to be an elite quarterback and fantasy because the situation he's stepping into his wide receiver three is brandon ayuk and his rushing upside but i've never been one to come out here and say trey lance is gonna be a good nfl quarterback from the sneak peek we got last season i think you have to be discouraged about the overall passing efficiency with lance so are you he can bounce back he can return value on where he's being drafted as the wide receiver 39 i just think what would have to happen is you would have to see either debo samuel or george kittle miss time this season now they don't have to miss the entire year if they miss a six-game stretch hell i think brandon hayek is going to be a profitable bet at wide receiver 39 it's just very difficult to go through and take him there right away now let's move over to a wide receiver that i actually have been drafting a lot i've drafted him a lot more than what we have seen without you let's go over to aj brown who definitely disappointed this past year he was being drafted at the very beginning of the second round some people were making the argument before julio jones came over that aj brown should have been a first round pick last season and now aj brown over there on underdog is going right at the beginning of the third he has an adp of 25 wide receiver 10 right after tyree kill right before t higgins and you're really seeing this adp here because if you're drafting an underdog and you take jonathan taylor and the first it's very hard to pull the trigger on those running backs of the two three turns so aj brown almost by default is sliding up here now if we were looking at aj brown his second year in the league he was a top 10 wide receiver the second year in the league he was the wide receiver seven on a per game basis and in 2021 yeah he had a fall off he actually fell down to being the wide receiver 26 but his efficiency went nowhere the underlying metrics for aj brown stayed the exact same this is a wide receiver that in 2020 when he posted a top 10 season he averaged 94 air yards a game this past year he averaged 93 air yards a game if we look at the first three years of his nfl career now i wish it would be easier for me to go through and track this on rotovis it's difficult but i want to say that no wide receiver probably is ever and i think it's i can confidently say this as well i think no wide receiver in nfl history is probably ever posted at least 2.7 yards per route run through the first three years of their nfl career 2.8 in 2019 2.7 in 2020 and that remained constant at 2.7 in 2021 and his target share went up in tennessee these are all the predictive metrics going forward air yards is very predictive yards per route run is very predictive target share is very predictive and he was just as good if not better in every one of those categories in 2021 than he was in 2020 but he fell down at being a high and wide receiver 3 in 2021 so we have to ask ourselves okay why did this happen it's easy the answer's staring at you right in the face in 2020 he posted a touchdown rate above 10 he was scoring about four touchdowns every five games off of only seven and a half targets a game that's not sustainable you should have known that was coming back down to earth this past season it dipped down probably a little bit too far it dipped down to 4.76 percent his three-year average has been hovering around 8.2 so i think we can safely say that aj brown if you're projecting him out this upcoming season his touchdown rate should be closer to about seven to eight percent based on the talent that he is if we're looking at his yards per route run i want to say that aj brown i almost want to speak it as it's a fact that he's one of the most talented if not the most talented wide receiver in the nfl i mean if we go through and if we look at the last three seasons and the only players to average over 2.7 yards per route run over the past three seasons at the wide receiver position devonte adams justin jefferson and aj brown davonte adam's 29 years old now justin jefferson obviously a better wide receiver than aj brown but you're getting justin jefferson at pick three at pick four you're getting age your bound at the beginning of the third so clearly you prefer jefferson but this kind of just gives you context of how damn good aj brown truly is and we have seen before that this tennessee titans offense is legitimately nothing without him if we look at games that aj brown has missed through the past three seasons you have six games that ryan tannehill played without aj brown and in those six games ryan tannehill averaged it's gonna be brutal 0.83 touchdowns per game compared to 1.85 with aj brown he actually had more pass attempts because the team was worse overall and had to throw the ball more he had an abysmal 6.31 passing yards per attempt without aj brown compared to 8.12 passing yards per attempt with aj brown during this ban so we have seen aj brown's ability to elevate bad quarterback play and that's the thesis here going over to philadelphia you're essentially betting aj brown is one of the most talented wide receivers in the nfl he's going to get to philadelphia and he's going to be able to elevate jalen hurts in this piss-poor passing offense in philadelphia and i think it's almost easy to see that happening now i don't want to act like everything's great with aj brown because we can say wow he was a large large reason and why the tennessee titans and ryan tannehill have found success over the past three seasons we can at the same time say the philadelphia eagles may be a worse situation overall than what you had in tennessee it's gross to admit that he's leaving a bad situation to possibly one that's slightly worse and if we go over and we look at that same road of his statistic that we pulled up the san francisco 49ers rush rate with let's go neutral situation that means the game's within seven points and you take out the last two minutes of the first half the philadelphia eagles last season only were behind the new england patriots in their rush rate this is a team that wants to run the ball and we have to look at the dominance by aj brown and admit that he had no target competition at all in tennessee the second leading receiver in targets last year was nick westbrook akeem not great now he's going over to an offense that has devonte smith not only smith dallas goddard if dallas got it was in tennessee last season he would have been significantly by far and away the second best receiver in tennessee so i am fine drafting aj brown at the beginning of the third round because i believe that he's an elite talent but we have to be real with ourselves and admit that he is going to a very bad situation overall now let's go over to our third player here let's go over to dk metcalf we'll be very brief with metcalf because we've talked about him a lot if you pull up where he's going on underdog fantasy you're getting him about in the middle of the fourth round he's being drafted as the wide receiver 19 and it's a very similar situation between these two wide receivers and it's funny because obviously deacon metcalf and aj round will always be compared to each other they both went to ole miss they both came out in that 2019 draft class they were both selected in the second round there are so many similarities between dk metcalf and aj brown and yet again you are going to see this wide receiver potentially being a bounce back in it but in an atrocious situation in 2020 dk metcalf was a top 10 wide receiver on a points per game basis nikki metcalf was close to the wide receiver six and if we look at how impressive that season was he commanded volume he had efficiency oh dear god if you look at the first two years of any wide receivers career since the year 2000 and you filter out wide receivers that had 1300 receiving yards and 10 yards per target in either their rookie or second year these were the players josh gordon torrey holt victor cruz jamar chase justin jefferson george kittle rob gronkowski odell beckham jr and dk metcalf like dk metcalf posted a fabulous fabulous second season and he got better with the underlying metrics in year three this is a wide receiver that went from 23 of his team's target share in 2020 to 26 in 2021. his target share has steadily climbed every year he's been in the nfl indicating that he is getting a larger portion of this offense than tyler lockett then the third option but there are some negatives to look at here with metcalf he's going from top 10 quarterback play in the nfl with russell wilson to now presumably bottom 10 quarterback play in the nfl with whoever you expect to start there so that's going to be a major concern because he had his highest touchdown rate of his entire nfl career in 2021 that number should come back down the earth especially especially if you were getting bad quarterback play coming in and on top of this there is the concern that dk metcalf throughout his entire career has only had to compete with tyler lockett now i know it sounds ridiculous but noah fan coming in may hurt because if noah fan can command say 14 15 16 of this team's target that is going to eat into metcalf that's going to eat into tyler locket just slightly so the worry is that this offense is so bad so bad that despite dk metcalf continuously improving as a wide receiver despite everybody being in agreement that he is a top talent in the nfl there there's just not enough production to go around for him to have a high ceiling so if we're looking at dk metcalf being drafted as the wider receiver 19 right before amari cooper and terry mclaurin if you're drafting metcalf here you're essentially betting they trade for baker they trade for jimmy garoppolo they get someone else in here because if jimmy garoppolo goes over to seattle i don't know if they would trade him in division but if they somehow did all of a sudden i think you're looking at dk metcalf it's a massive value at wide receiver 19 however if his quarterbacks drew lock dear god look at what jerry judy and colton sutton have been over the past few seasons now let's go over to the main guy everybody's here for let's go over to alan robinson and with allen robinson i do not want to understate how bad he was this past season he was the wide receiver 79 he had 17 of the chicago bears targets on a per game basis he scored one touchdown and the biggest red flag of them all the biggest red flag of them all 1.2 yards per route run now i cannot stress enough how bad that is and you go through and you look at darnell mooney darnell mooney was decent with his yards per route run i mean darnell mooney was hovering i believe about 1.8 let me look this up but yes it was 1.8 now let's talk about how important this statistic is i went ahead and tracked the top 24 wide receivers on a per game basis in 2021 and in 2020 and what i wanted to do to prove the importance of yards per route run is i then tracked their previous year's yards per route run so if you finished as a top 24 wide receiver in 2020 what was your yards per route run in 2019 and could we have predicted your success and the reason i'm drawing the cutoff as wide receiver 24 is that's where allen robinson's being drafted on underdog fantasy right now he's being drafted as wide receiver 24 directly ahead of david montgomery lamar jackson and chris godwin now the findings were pretty concrete with this yards per outrun data in that the average yards per route run before a top 24 finish was about two in the lowest that you had among the 48 finishes was 1.4 from brandon cooks he finished as a top 24 wide receiver in 2020 in that 1.4 yards per out run was that 2019 season that was abysmal and he had to switch teams to the houston texans allen robinson was at 1.2 over the past two years we never saw a wide receiver go from 1.2 or less yards per route run and then finish as a top 24 option now i would be willing to completely ignore this and say oh my god it was justin fields it was matt nagy come on mason are we serious we're looking at this season darnell mooney posted a yards per hour on what 1.8 darnell mooney was more efficient darnell mooney commanded more volume darnell mooney was a wide receiver three in fantasy i don't think darnell mooney is the top 10 receiver in the nfl so if he was over to come this situation i'm not that confident saying allen robinson is all of a sudden going to be elite now what i do have to admit alan robinson throughout his entire career since 2014 has played with some of the worst quarterbacks in the nfl he played 46 games with blake bortles 36 games with trubisky eight games with nick foles 10 games justin fields played with andy dalton chase daniel chad henny like dear god matthew stafford will be by far and away the best quarterback he's ever played with and on top of this he's getting sean mcvay who was able to find a successful role for odell beckham jr who was atrocious in cleveland as well now adding in the contract they gave alan robinson this is what makes me scared they gave allen robinson 30 million dollars guaranteed if you compare that to someone like juju smith shuster this past season juju got paid 2.5 million guaranteed from the chiefs so the rams they're going out on a limb and they're saying oh yeah we're we're willing to bet on the allen robinson breakout we are willing to go through and say it was all justin fields it was all matt and aggie allen robinson is an elite level receiver i don't act like i'm smarter than sean mcvay obviously sean mcvay and everybody associated with the los angeles rams organization significantly smarter than i am but based on this data based on cooper cup taking over 25 of this team's target share i'm not drafting on robinson at the end of the fourth the beginning of the fifth round i am taking david montgomery i'm taking lamar jackson i'm taking chris godwin over him i mean he's going one spot behind george kettle i'm taking kittle easily but let me know what you all are doing this upcoming season with these players i think really the only guy i would be willing to say i'm betting on the bounce back would be if you can get dk metcalf as a low and wide receiver two in your fantasy draft if you can get aj brown as a player in the beginning of the third the middle of the third round i'm willing to bet on those options or brandon if you want to stack him with trey lance really the one guy i'm not betting on is alan robinson but i got burnt with allen robinson maybe i'm biased i had him ranked over chris godwin last year and he made me look like an idiot thank you for being a part of the flock thank you for supporting the channel i hope you have a great day i hope you enjoyed this video hope you got something from it and hope to see you in a live stream sometime soon"}]
Schreibe einen Kommentar